FC Internazionale Milano vs. Como 1907: O/U 4.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 73¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$67.01

Smart Money Entry

74.3¢ → 72.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,031

Combined PnL-$79.3

Over3 traders

Total Value$119.05

Total Shares380

Combined PnL+$12.29

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 75.3¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$113.61	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 51.5¢	$603.77	$434.84	-$168.93	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ Under leg	Underavg 72.5¢	$240.71	$240.81	+$0.1
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.5¢	$363.06	$194.03	-$169.03
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 37.9¢	$522.34	$425.49	-$91.25	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.9¢	$318.62	$231.22	-$89.38
└ Under leg	Underavg 73.2¢	$196.14	$194.27	-$1.87
nigiri99	Underavg 76¢	$418	$412.5	-$5.5	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
RN1	Underavg 51.4¢	$95.94	$135.45	+$39.51	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Overavg 18.5¢	$41.67	$62.01	+$20.34	47% 1601-1796 (3397)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Underavg 76.4¢	$73.1	$62.01	-$1.57	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
└ Under leg	Underavg 76.4¢	$38.68	$36.73	-$3.12
└ Over leg	Overavg 25.8¢	$23.73	$25.28	+$1.55
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$63.48	$55.64	-$7.85	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 77¢	$44.7	$45	+$0.3	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Underavg 75¢	$15	$11.25	+$0	52% 1527-1394 (2921)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.4	-$0.2	48% 2079-2257 (4336)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,481.09

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$113.61

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$603.77

Value

$434.84

PnL

-$168.93

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

Under$240.7172.5¢+$0.1

Over$363.0651.5¢-$169.03

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$522.34

Value

$425.49

PnL

-$91.25

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Over$318.6237.9¢-$89.38

Under$196.1473.2¢-$1.87

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$418

Value

$412.5

PnL

-$5.5

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

RN1

Under

Invested

$95.94

Value

$135.45

PnL

+$39.51

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.67

Value

$62.01

PnL

+$20.34

Record

47%

1601-1796 (3397)

Pan9XARB<$100

Under

Invested

$73.1

Value

$62.01

PnL

-$1.57

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Both legs:

Under$38.6876.4¢-$3.12

Over$23.7325.8¢+$1.55

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.48

Value

$55.64

PnL

-$7.85

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$44.7

Value

$45

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

lonmi2511<$100

Under

Invested

$15

Value

$11.25

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

1527-1394 (2921)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.