FC Internazionale Milano vs. Como 1907: O/U 0.5
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 96¢ · $387 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 44%
$387.2
$0.63
96.2¢ → 96.2¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 96.1¢ | $187.99 | $178.03 | +$1.99 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 96.2¢ | $128.89 | $129.3 | +$0.41 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 96¢ | $39.62 | $39.7 | +$0.08 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 96.1¢ | $25.96 | $25.97 | +$0.01 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 4.1¢ | $6.6 | $5.65 | -$0.95 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 4.1¢ | $4.1 | $3.71 | -$0.39 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $2.25 | $1.97 | -$0.28 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 4.1¢ | $1.77 | $1.52 | -$0.25 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.7¢ | $1.34 | $1.34 | +$0 | 49% 15008-15929 (30937) |
Invested
$187.99
Value
$178.03
PnL
+$1.99
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$128.89
Value
$129.3
PnL
+$0.41
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$39.62
Value
$39.7
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
Invested
$25.96
Value
$25.97
PnL
+$0.01
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$5.65
PnL
-$0.95
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$3.71
PnL
-$0.39
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$1.97
PnL
-$0.28
Record
58%
23579-16943 (40522)
Invested
$1.77
Value
$1.52
PnL
-$0.25
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$1.34
Value
$1.34
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
15008-15929 (30937)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.