Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Como 1907 (13%) · Como 1907 at 72¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 8

FC Internazionale Milano28¢Como 190772¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Como 1907

Consensus Traders

Como 1907 13%

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

-$42.07

Research grade

NeutralComo 1907 at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Como 1907

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

FC Internazionale Milano28%

Como 190772%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Como 19071 trader

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares12,079

Combined PnL-$363.67

FC Internazionale Milano7 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares11,855

Combined PnL+$321.59

Como 1907 — 13%FC Internazionale Milano — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Como 1907. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFC Internazionale Milano 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpComo 1907 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFC Internazionale Milano 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000FC Internazionale Milano 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thegreatjeff	Como 1907avg 74.5¢	$9.0K	$8.6K	-$363.67	67% 26-13 (39)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 25¢	$2.3K	$2.6K	+$318.75	50% 2774-2749 (5523)
FL FlaznorpCTR	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 28.5¢	$710.87	$710.89	+$0.02	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 27.3¢	$45.35	$47.31	+$1.96	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 27.5¢	$15.86	$16.44	+$0.58	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
nigiri99CTR<$100	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 30¢	$4.5	$4.27	-$0.07	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 26¢	$3.54	$3.88	+$0.34	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 27¢	$0.44	$0.47	+$0.02	48% 7449-7982 (15431)

thegreatjeff

Como 1907

Invested

$8,999.99

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$363.67

Record

67%

26-13 (39)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$2,276.78

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$318.75

Record

50%

2774-2749 (5523)

FlaznorpCTR

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$710.87

Value

$710.89

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

38791873984189CTR<$100

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$45.35

Value

$47.31

PnL

+$1.96

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

ghorrockCTR<$100

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$15.86

Value

$16.44

PnL

+$0.58

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

nigiri99CTR<$100

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.27

PnL

-$0.07

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$3.54

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

OddstormCTR<$100

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.47

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

7449-7982 (15431)

Research grade

NeutralComo 1907 at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Como 1907

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Como 1907. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFC Internazionale Milano 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpComo 1907 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFC Internazionale Milano 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000FC Internazionale Milano 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Como 1907 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.