Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Como 1907, while the market favors FC Internazionale Milano (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Como 1907 (-2.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Como 1907 (80%) · Como 1907 at 0.3¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8

Como 1907<1¢FC Internazionale Milano>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Como 1907

Consensus Traders

Como 1907 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$687.49

Smart Money Entry

4.4¢ → 0.3¢

-93% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidComo 1907 at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Como 1907

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors FC Internazionale Milano 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Como 19070%

FC Internazionale Milano100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Como 19078 traders

Total Value$975.33

Total Shares21,580

Combined PnL-$691.33

FC Internazionale Milano2 traders

Total Value$151.79

Total Shares153

Combined PnL+$3.84

Como 1907 — 80%FC Internazionale Milano — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Como 1907avg 4.3¢	$1.4K	$778.77	-$655.35	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 95.5¢	$1.2K	$202.16	+$5.09	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
└ FC Internazionale Milano leg	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 95.5¢	$149.46	$148.76	+$0.23
└ Como 1907 leg	Como 1907avg 4.5¢	$48.44	$53.41	+$4.86
PA Pan9X	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 95.2¢	$141.66	$133.87	+$3.67	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Como 1907avg 5¢	$81.22	$74.05	-$7.17	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
SE sentrioARB<$100	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 95.5¢	$726.81	$64.62	+$4.43	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
└ Como 1907 leg	Como 1907avg 4.3¢	$29.82	$34.4	+$4.57
└ FC Internazionale Milano leg	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 95.5¢	$30.36	$30.22	-$0.14
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Como 1907avg 4.7¢	$48.88	$51.48	+$2.6	48% 3580-3942 (7522)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Como 1907avg 4¢	$44.31	$44.05	-$0.26	49% 6674-6865 (13539)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Como 1907avg 4.4¢	$20.57	$23.07	+$2.49	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
GH ghorrock<$100	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 95.6¢	$17.75	$17.92	+$0.17	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Como 1907avg 4.3¢	$18.49	$1.94	-$16.55	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Como 1907avg 4.3¢	$16.66	$1.75	-$14.91	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Como 1907avg 4.8¢	$2.4	$0.22	-$2.18	48% 2039-2213 (4252)

FlaznorpCTR

Como 1907

Invested

$1,434.11

Value

$778.77

PnL

-$655.35

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$1,235.4

Value

$202.16

PnL

+$5.09

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Both legs:

FC Internazionale Milano$149.4695.5¢+$0.23

Como 1907$48.444.5¢+$4.86

Pan9X

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$141.66

Value

$133.87

PnL

+$3.67

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

VenusianCTR<$100

Como 1907

Invested

$81.22

Value

$74.05

PnL

-$7.17

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

sentrioARB<$100

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$726.81

Value

$64.62

PnL

+$4.43

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Both legs:

Como 1907$29.824.3¢+$4.57

FC Internazionale Milano$30.3695.5¢-$0.14

dv-pmCTR<$100

Como 1907

Invested

$48.88

Value

$51.48

PnL

+$2.6

Record

48%

3580-3942 (7522)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Como 1907

Invested

$44.31

Value

$44.05

PnL

-$0.26

Record

49%

6674-6865 (13539)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Como 1907

Invested

$20.57

Value

$23.07

PnL

+$2.49

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

ghorrock<$100

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$17.75

Value

$17.92

PnL

+$0.17

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Como 1907

Invested

$18.49

Value

$1.94

PnL

-$16.55

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Como 1907

Invested

$16.66

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$14.91

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Como 1907

Invested

$2.4

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$2.18

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Research grade

AvoidComo 1907 at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Como 1907

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors FC Internazionale Milano 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Como 1907 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7230.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

7330.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.