Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 3 - 1 Como 1907?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 91¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$6.7K
$9.83
94.9¢ → 90.9¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 95¢ | $5.7K | $5.5K | -$236.64 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 5¢ | $302.52 | $541.51 | +$238.99 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 94¢ | $350 | $330.75 | +$1.75 | 57% 22329-16593 (38922) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 94¢ | $349.99 | $330.74 | +$1.75 | 57% 22219-16567 (38786) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $5 | $4.73 | +$0.03 | 51% 27916-27361 (55277) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $1.51 | $3.06 | +$1.55 | 48% 70219-75923 (146142) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $0.51 | $2.91 | +$2.41 | 50% 48537-48152 (96689) |
RN1Invested
$5,691.45
Value
$5.5K
PnL
-$236.64
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$302.52
Value
$541.51
PnL
+$238.99
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$350
Value
$330.75
PnL
+$1.75
Record
57%
22329-16593 (38922)
Invested
$349.99
Value
$330.74
PnL
+$1.75
Record
57%
22219-16567 (38786)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.73
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
27916-27361 (55277)
Invested
$1.51
Value
$3.06
PnL
+$1.55
Record
48%
70219-75923 (146142)
Invested
$0.51
Value
$2.91
PnL
+$2.41
Record
50%
48537-48152 (96689)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.