Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 2 - 3 Como 1907?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
$3.5K
-$4.24
96.5¢ → 96.9¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Noavg 96.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$15.39 | 48% 2079-2257 (4336) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.8¢ | $957.5 | $954.59 | -$2.9 | 50% 48537-48152 (96689) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 96.8¢ | $473.03 | $457.18 | -$0.71 | 46% 30563-35669 (66232) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 96.5¢ | $282.27 | $284.6 | +$2.33 | 48% 2039-2213 (4252) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 96.8¢ | $144.44 | $139.6 | -$0.22 | 57% 22219-16567 (38786) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 96.8¢ | $144.3 | $139.47 | +$0.22 | 57% 22329-16593 (38922) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $59.34 | $43.7 | -$15.65 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $27.56 | $26.64 | -$0.01 | 57% 24613-18229 (42842) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $24.04 | $24.3 | +$0.26 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $13.18 | $10.22 | -$2.96 | 48% 70219-75923 (146142) |
Invested
$1,430.26
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$15.39
Record
48%
2079-2257 (4336)
Invested
$957.5
Value
$954.59
PnL
-$2.9
Record
50%
48537-48152 (96689)
Invested
$473.03
Value
$457.18
PnL
-$0.71
Record
46%
30563-35669 (66232)
Invested
$282.27
Value
$284.6
PnL
+$2.33
Record
48%
2039-2213 (4252)
Invested
$144.44
Value
$139.6
PnL
-$0.22
Record
57%
22219-16567 (38786)
Invested
$144.3
Value
$139.47
PnL
+$0.22
Record
57%
22329-16593 (38922)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$59.34
Value
$43.7
PnL
-$15.65
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$27.56
Value
$26.64
PnL
-$0.01
Record
57%
24613-18229 (42842)
Invested
$24.04
Value
$24.3
PnL
+$0.26
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$13.18
Value
$10.22
PnL
-$2.96
Record
48%
70219-75923 (146142)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.