Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 1 - 3 Como 1907?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$2.9K
$9.56
96.5¢ → 98.8¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 96.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$27.18 | 49% 2102-2190 (4292) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 96.4¢ | $748.9 | $767.76 | +$18.87 | 48% 2032-2230 (4262) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 96.3¢ | $469.57 | $481.45 | +$11.88 | 48% 2079-2257 (4336) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.7¢ | $292.89 | $282.93 | +$0.46 | 50% 48537-48152 (96689) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $241.42 | $63.1 | -$0.07 | 48% 70219-75923 (146142) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $53.59 | $51.77 | +$0 | 48% 2039-2213 (4252) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $84.85 | $35.48 | -$49.37 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $19.23 | $19.54 | +$0.31 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $2.82 | $3.12 | +$0.31 | 45% 14412-17706 (32118) |
Invested
$1,145.63
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$27.18
Record
49%
2102-2190 (4292)
Invested
$748.9
Value
$767.76
PnL
+$18.87
Record
48%
2032-2230 (4262)
Invested
$469.57
Value
$481.45
PnL
+$11.88
Record
48%
2079-2257 (4336)
Invested
$292.89
Value
$282.93
PnL
+$0.46
Record
50%
48537-48152 (96689)
Invested
$241.42
Value
$63.1
PnL
-$0.07
Record
48%
70219-75923 (146142)
Invested
$53.59
Value
$51.77
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2039-2213 (4252)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$84.85
Value
$35.48
PnL
-$49.37
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$19.23
Value
$19.54
PnL
+$0.31
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$2.82
Value
$3.12
PnL
+$0.31
Record
45%
14412-17706 (32118)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.