Will Como 1907 win on 2026-11-08?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 75¢ · $951 held · ends Nov 8

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$951.1

Combined PnL

$1.18

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 74.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$942.43

Total Shares1,267

Combined PnL+$0.79

Yes2 traders

Total Value$8.67

Total Shares34

Combined PnL+$0.39

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 74¢	$391.66	$394.21	+$2.55	58% 46667-33629 (80296)
GC GC-P	Noavg 74¢	$166.63	$167.76	+$1.13	64% 9962-5593 (15555)
NM NM-P	Noavg 74¢	$160.97	$162.06	+$1.09	64% 9921-5525 (15446)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 76.9¢	$161.84	$155.75	-$3.13	51% 25716-24429 (50145)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 75¢	$37.5	$37	-$0.5	48% 61036-65868 (126904)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 75¢	$31.33	$25.65	-$0.35	69% 7203-3187 (10390)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$5.28	$5.61	+$0.33	49% 3325-3528 (6853)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$3	$3.06	+$0.06	53% 16798-14919 (31717)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$391.66

Value

$394.21

PnL

+$2.55

Record

58%

46667-33629 (80296)

GC-P

Invested

$166.63

Value

$167.76

PnL

+$1.13

Record

64%

9962-5593 (15555)

NM-P

Invested

$160.97

Value

$162.06

PnL

+$1.09

Record

64%

9921-5525 (15446)

Flaznorp

Invested

$161.84

Value

$155.75

PnL

-$3.13

Record

51%

25716-24429 (50145)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$37.5

Value

$37

PnL

-$0.5

Record

48%

61036-65868 (126904)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$31.33

Value

$25.65

PnL

-$0.35

Record

69%

7203-3187 (10390)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.28

Value

$5.61

PnL

+$0.33

Record

49%

3325-3528 (6853)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.06

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

16798-14919 (31717)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.