FC Internazionale Milano vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 75¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 8

Yes75¢No25¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.6K

Combined PnL

-$215.36

Smart Money Entry

66.4¢ → 74.5¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes75%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$15.0K

Total Shares19,322

Combined PnL+$1.4K

No8 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares19,734

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 66.7¢	$8.9K	$9.7K	+$814.34	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 33.3¢	$3.9K	$2.9K	$-1.0K	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 66.1¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$326.25	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
RN1	Yesavg 66¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$238.38	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 33.9¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$498.17	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$639.33	$600.78	-$5.89	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67¢	$402	$447	+$45
└ No leg	Noavg 33.8¢	$203.97	$153.78	-$50.89
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 32.9¢	$461.31	$498.03	+$36.72	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
PA Pan9X	Yesavg 66.9¢	$183.57	$168.35	+$22.77	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
GC GC-P	Yesavg 65.2¢	$139.4	$161.52	+$22.13	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 34.4¢	$213.63	$148.85	-$64.77	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 65¢	$139.23	$140.27	+$1.04	65% 2130-1169 (3299)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 38.9¢	$190.89	$125.18	-$65.71	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
nigiri99<$100	Yesavg 65.4¢	$56.9	$58.73	+$1.83	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 33.4¢	$20.01	$19.91	-$0.1	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$22.93	$17.2	-$5.73	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$13.46	$9.23	-$4.23	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
0xheavy888<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$6.89	$7.16	+$0.27	56% 8592-6809 (15401)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$8,934.21

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$814.34

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$3,922.23

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$2,410.97

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$326.25

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$1,898.09

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$238.38

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$1,794.31

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$498.17

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$639.33

Value

$600.78

PnL

-$5.89

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

Both legs:

Yes$40267¢+$45

No$203.9733.8¢-$50.89

NM-PCTR

Invested

$461.31

Value

$498.03

PnL

+$36.72

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Pan9X

Yes

Invested

$183.57

Value

$168.35

PnL

+$22.77

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

GC-P

Yes

Invested

$139.4

Value

$161.52

PnL

+$22.13

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$213.63

Value

$148.85

PnL

-$64.77

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$139.23

Value

$140.27

PnL

+$1.04

Record

65%

2130-1169 (3299)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$190.89

Value

$125.18

PnL

-$65.71

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

nigiri99<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.9

Value

$58.73

PnL

+$1.83

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$20.01

Value

$19.91

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$22.93

Value

$17.2

PnL

-$5.73

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$13.46

Value

$9.23

PnL

-$4.23

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

0xheavy888<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.89

Value

$7.16

PnL

+$0.27

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.