Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Genoa CFC vs. Juventus FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$1.6K
-$241.38
68.1¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 73¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | -$339.63 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
DA dashattackerCTR | Underavg 53¢ | $306.68 | $405.05 | +$98.37 | 72% 2286-872 (3158) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $40.5 | $45 | +$4.5 | 50% 6813-6827 (13640) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 71.7¢ | $11 | $9.26 | -$1.74 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Overavg 92¢ | $5.75 | $2.88 | -$2.88 | 77% 3117-956 (4073) |
Invested
$1,525.81
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$339.63
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$306.68
Value
$405.05
PnL
+$98.37
Record
72%
2286-872 (3158)
Invested
$40.5
Value
$45
PnL
+$4.5
Record
50%
6813-6827 (13640)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$11
Value
$9.26
PnL
-$1.74
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$5.75
Value
$2.88
PnL
-$2.88
Record
77%
3117-956 (4073)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.