Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
$3.5K
$538.92
55.8¢ → 100¢
+79% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 50.2¢ | $826.83 | $1.6K | +$819.23 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 63.5¢ | $880.02 | $1.4K | +$504.32 | 72% 2540-972 (3512) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 46.5¢ | $882.91 | $256.17 | -$627.44 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 44.9¢ | $57.31 | $127.57 | +$70.26 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Overavg 31.4¢ | $121.72 | $30.87 | -$90.85 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 64.1¢ | $137.74 | $8.59 | -$129.15 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $11.46 | $4.01 | -$7.45 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
Invested
$826.83
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$819.23
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$880.02
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$504.32
Record
72%
2540-972 (3512)
RN1CTRInvested
$882.91
Value
$256.17
PnL
-$627.44
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$57.31
Value
$127.57
PnL
+$70.26
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$121.72
Value
$30.87
PnL
-$90.85
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
Invested
$137.74
Value
$8.59
PnL
-$129.15
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$11.46
Value
$4.01
PnL
-$7.45
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.