Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (78%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

ACF Fiorentina vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 23¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Yes78¢No22¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$280.04

Smart Money Entry

41.1¢ → 22.5¢

-45% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,633

Combined PnL-$298.72

Yes3 traders

Total Value$568.63

Total Shares643

Combined PnL+$18.68

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 42.8¢	$586.11	$589.28	+$3.17	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 43¢	$636.79	$340.61	-$296.18	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 74.1¢	$297.63	$283.18	-$14.44	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 59.2¢	$184.21	$213.15	+$28.94	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
0xheavy888CTR	Noavg 43.5¢	$175.57	$173.58	-$1.99	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
PA Pan9X<$100	Yesavg 70.2¢	$70.27	$72.3	+$4.18	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$29.64	$35.88	+$6.24	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 20.3¢	$25.37	$28.74	+$3.37	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$12.15	$12.44	+$0.29	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$21.72	$11.9	-$9.83	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$8.4	$4.6	-$3.8	48% 2117-2339 (4456)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$586.11

Value

$589.28

PnL

+$3.17

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$636.79

Value

$340.61

PnL

-$296.18

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$297.63

Value

$283.18

PnL

-$14.44

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$184.21

Value

$213.15

PnL

+$28.94

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

0xheavy888CTR

Invested

$175.57

Value

$173.58

PnL

-$1.99

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

Pan9X<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.27

Value

$72.3

PnL

+$4.18

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$29.64

Value

$35.88

PnL

+$6.24

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$25.37

Value

$28.74

PnL

+$3.37

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$12.15

Value

$12.44

PnL

+$0.29

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$21.72

Value

$11.9

PnL

-$9.83

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$3.8

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.