ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 100¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 29

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 89%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

-$718.61

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares10,111

Combined PnL-$403.72

Over1 trader

Total Value$0.35

Total Shares702

Combined PnL-$314.89

Under — 89%Over — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 89.4¢	$8.4K	$7.9K	-$519.8	72% 2343-899 (3242)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 55.1¢	$1.8K	$3.1K	+$1.3K	54% 56053-48184 (104237)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.1¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$609.29
└ Over leg	Overavg 8.3¢	$565.02	$1.2K	+$646.57
VeryLucky888	Underavg 55¢	$165	$299.85	+$93.6	58% 41266-29916 (71182)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 55¢	$110	$110	-$0	54% 4827-4065 (8892)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 54¢	$63.18	$64.35	+$1.17	58% 28259-20841 (49100)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 55.7¢	$34.24	$56	+$21.75	57% 13381-10228 (23609)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Underavg 85¢	$54.55	$54.93	+$0.38	49% 18854-19262 (38116)
└ Over leg	Overavg 17¢	$26.45	$27.76	+$1.31
└ Under leg	Underavg 85¢	$28.1	$27.17	-$0.93
poshposh<$100	Underavg 89.3¢	$34.69	$35.37	+$0.68	59% 9718-6703 (16421)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 61¢	$16.26	$14.66	-$1.6	49% 671-693 (1364)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 67¢	$2.03	$2.51	+$0.48	52% 3741-3403 (7144)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 44.9¢	$315.24	$0.35	-$314.89	50% 6902-6894 (13796)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$8,371.62

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$519.8

Record

72%

2343-899 (3242)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,801.13

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

54%

56053-48184 (104237)

Both legs:

Under$1,236.1155.1¢+$609.29

Over$565.028.3¢+$646.57

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$165

Value

$299.85

PnL

+$93.6

Record

58%

41266-29916 (71182)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$110

Value

$110

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

4827-4065 (8892)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$63.18

Value

$64.35

PnL

+$1.17

Record

58%

28259-20841 (49100)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$34.24

Value

$56

PnL

+$21.75

Record

57%

13381-10228 (23609)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Under

Invested

$54.55

Value

$54.93

PnL

+$0.38

Record

49%

18854-19262 (38116)

Both legs:

Invested

$34.69

Value

$35.37

PnL

+$0.68

Record

59%

9718-6703 (16421)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$16.26

Value

$14.66

PnL

-$1.6

Record

49%

671-693 (1364)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.03

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$0.48

Record

52%

3741-3403 (7144)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$315.24

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$314.89

Record

50%

6902-6894 (13796)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.