Como 1907 vs. Venezia FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$678.86

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,361

Combined PnL+$42.38

Under6 traders

Total Value$216.41

Total Shares3,696

Combined PnL-$721.24

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$1.02	98% 13358-214 (13572)
RO Rocky31	Overavg 85.1¢	$218.35	$256.51	+$38.16	74% 1680-593 (2273)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 34¢	$235.42	$214.74	-$20.68	48% 8937-9552 (18489)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 81¢	$32.4	$34.03	-$9	50% 7122-7164 (14286)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 45¢	$9.99	$22.19	+$12.2	49% 13009-13568 (26577)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 51¢	$898.82	$0.88	-$890.01	72% 2539-969 (3508)
FO forecastication4CTR	Underavg 17¢	$127.5	$0.38	-$127.13	49% 1197-1224 (2421)
poshposhCTR	Underavg 18.3¢	$130.99	$0.36	+$345.28	58% 10646-7629 (18275)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$12.02	$0.03	-$11.99	56% 14224-11027 (25251)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$16.73	$0.02	-$16.71	67% 23457-11814 (35271)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$2,039.63

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.02

Record

98%

13358-214 (13572)

Rocky31

Over

Invested

$218.35

Value

$256.51

PnL

+$38.16

Record

74%

1680-593 (2273)

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$235.42

Value

$214.74

PnL

-$20.68

Record

48%

8937-9552 (18489)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$32.4

Value

$34.03

PnL

-$9

Record

50%

7122-7164 (14286)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$9.99

Value

$22.19

PnL

+$12.2

Record

49%

13009-13568 (26577)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$898.82

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$890.01

Record

72%

2539-969 (3508)

forecastication4CTR

Under

Invested

$127.5

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$127.13

Record

49%

1197-1224 (2421)

poshposhCTR

Under

Invested

$130.99

Value

$0.36

PnL

+$345.28

Record

58%

10646-7629 (18275)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.02

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$11.99

Record

56%

14224-11027 (25251)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$16.71

Record

67%

23457-11814 (35271)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.