Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-11-07?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 61¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$2.2K
$0.25
60.1¢ → 60.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
85h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 60¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$25.41 | 51% 26028-24687 (50715) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR | Yesavg 40¢ | $997.88 | $985.4 | -$24.95 | 64% 1975-1105 (3080) |
DV dv-pm<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $30.5 | $30.25 | -$0.25 | 49% 3341-3547 (6888) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $29.48 | $29.73 | +$0.25 | 58% 46840-33772 (80612) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $19.71 | $19.38 | -$0.32 | 53% 16854-14976 (31830) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $15.86 | $15.86 | +$0.13 | 48% 61419-66265 (127684) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $6.71 | $6.6 | +$0 | 64% 9984-5568 (15552) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $3 | -$0.03 | 50% 25943-25631 (51574) |
Invested
$1,014.33
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$25.41
Record
51%
26028-24687 (50715)
Invested
$997.88
Value
$985.4
PnL
-$24.95
Record
64%
1975-1105 (3080)
Invested
$30.5
Value
$30.25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
49%
3341-3547 (6888)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$29.48
Value
$29.73
PnL
+$0.25
Record
58%
46840-33772 (80612)
Invested
$19.71
Value
$19.38
PnL
-$0.32
Record
53%
16854-14976 (31830)
Invested
$15.86
Value
$15.86
PnL
+$0.13
Record
48%
61419-66265 (127684)
Invested
$6.71
Value
$6.6
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
9984-5568 (15552)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$3
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
25943-25631 (51574)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.