Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Frosinone Calcio end in a draw?

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (47%) · No at 71¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 7

Yes29¢No71¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 47%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$14.84

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 71¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares5,692

Combined PnL-$63.92

Yes8 traders

Total Value$821.5

Total Shares3,081

Combined PnL+$49.08

No — 47%Yes — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 74¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$37.32	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$947.09	$923.97	-$23.12	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28¢	$546.14	$536.39	-$9.75
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$400.95	$387.59	-$13.37
VE Venusian	Noavg 76¢	$937.26	$915.56	-$21.7	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
AN Anon455	Noavg 72¢	$704.98	$709.88	+$4.9	55% 3804-3137 (6941)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 74.9¢	$493.56	$484.05	-$9.51	52% 14650-13314 (27964)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 25.8¢	$257.06	$273.84	+$16.78	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 72.4¢	$247.29	$247.5	+$0.21	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$125.83	$138.42	+$12.58	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$108.69	$107.73	+$2.15	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.5¢	$92.86	$98.54	+$5.69	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$84.63	$96.98	+$12.34	57% 2111-1562 (3673)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 73¢	$86.17	$87.11	+$0.95	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
PT PT-S7<$100	Noavg 74.4¢	$55.75	$54.3	-$1.45	49% 3280-3447 (6727)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$53.78	$51.71	-$1.03	53% 16963-15085 (32048)
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$162.88	$41.53	+$0.81	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$13	$12.75	-$0.25	48% 3364-3589 (6953)

RN1

Invested

$1,849.34

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$37.32

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$947.09

Value

$923.97

PnL

-$23.12

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

Both legs:

Yes$546.1428¢-$9.75

No$400.9575¢-$13.37

Venusian

Invested

$937.26

Value

$915.56

PnL

-$21.7

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

Anon455

Invested

$704.98

Value

$709.88

PnL

+$4.9

Record

55%

3804-3137 (6941)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$493.56

Value

$484.05

PnL

-$9.51

Record

52%

14650-13314 (27964)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$257.06

Value

$273.84

PnL

+$16.78

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

38791873984189

Invested

$247.29

Value

$247.5

PnL

+$0.21

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$125.83

Value

$138.42

PnL

+$12.58

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$108.69

Value

$107.73

PnL

+$2.15

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.86

Value

$98.54

PnL

+$5.69

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.63

Value

$96.98

PnL

+$12.34

Record

57%

2111-1562 (3673)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$86.17

Value

$87.11

PnL

+$0.95

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

PT-S7<$100

Invested

$55.75

Value

$54.3

PnL

-$1.45

Record

49%

3280-3447 (6727)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.78

Value

$51.71

PnL

-$1.03

Record

53%

16963-15085 (32048)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$162.88

Value

$41.53

PnL

+$0.81

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13

Value

$12.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

3364-3589 (6953)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.