Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-07?

12 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 72¢ · $109K held · ended Nov 7

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$108.9K

Combined PnL

-$764.54

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 71.5¢

+6% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 27 top traders (44%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$53.1K

Total Shares75,979

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Yes15 traders

Total Value$30.1K

Total Shares99,964

Combined PnL$-2.2K

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

26% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 74% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hovistomaradona	Noavg 66.5¢	$19.3K	$19.9K	+$584.99	56% 18-14 (32)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Yesavg 31.1¢	$16.6K	$15.8K	-$843.4	47% 533-610 (1143)
KC Kch-Temp	Noavg 66.1¢	$13.8K	$14.6K	+$955.28	51% 233-227 (460)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 69.9¢	$12.0K	$11.9K	-$181.47	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.9¢	$8.5K	$8.7K	+$194.39
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.9¢	$3.6K	$3.2K	-$375.85
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 34.7¢	$9.3K	$8.3K	$-1.0K	64% 2039-1134 (3173)
AN Anon455	Noavg 69.9¢	$8.2K	$8.3K	+$74.67	55% 3804-3137 (6941)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 69.7¢	$7.9K	$7.9K	-$22.38	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.7¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$29.3
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.9¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$51.69
XW xwingboy	Noavg 72¢	$5.1K	$4.9K	-$213.35	66% 364-185 (549)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$33.85	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.4¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$37.93
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.1¢	$886.25	$814.46	-$71.78
SP sport-intelligenceCTR	Yesavg 31.1¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$155	38% 115-190 (305)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$25.85	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.1¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$39.2
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.7¢	$669.68	$604.63	-$65.05
RN1	Noavg 70¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$15.64	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 33.2¢	$918.61	$843.66	-$74.95	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
oieshfn345	Noavg 69¢	$718.39	$751.52	+$33.14	57% 2111-1562 (3673)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 70.5¢	$713.96	$715.81	+$1.84	52% 14650-13314 (27964)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 32.1¢	$727.66	$694.79	-$32.87	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 69.7¢	$604.03	$596.89	-$7.13	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
fraj0la	Noavg 67.1¢	$508.5	$522.73	+$26.52	63% 255-149 (404)
SE sentrioCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$491.76	$461.95	-$29.8	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
HI hi774cCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$475.73	$446.9	-$36.04	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 68.8¢	$933.27	$352.51	-$36.47	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 68.4¢	$209.37	$211.17	+$1.8	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 33.5¢	$212.45	$195.25	-$17.2	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 31¢	$186	$186	-$0	51% 2058-1996 (4054)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Yesavg 32.3¢	$132.14	$106.77	-$6.38	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.3¢	$63.67	$58.12	-$7.01
└ No leg	Noavg 69.6¢	$48.02	$48.65	+$0.63

hovistomaradona

Invested

$19,276.6

Value

$19.9K

PnL

+$584.99

Record

56%

18-14 (32)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Yes

Invested

$16,612.11

Value

$15.8K

PnL

-$843.4

Record

47%

533-610 (1143)

Kch-Temp

Invested

$13,820.99

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$955.28

Record

51%

233-227 (460)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$12,042.68

Value

$11.9K

PnL

-$181.47

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Both legs:

No$8,487.4569.9¢+$194.39

Yes$3,555.2331.9¢-$375.85

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$9,321.48

Value

$8.3K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

64%

2039-1134 (3173)

Anon455

Invested

$8,183.88

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$74.67

Record

55%

3804-3137 (6941)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$7,920.04

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$22.38

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

Both legs:

No$6,049.1469.7¢+$29.3

Yes$1,870.8930.9¢-$51.69

xwingboy

Invested

$5,072.5

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$213.35

Record

66%

364-185 (549)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$3,253.33

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$33.85

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Both legs:

No$2,367.0869.4¢+$37.93

Yes$886.2532.1¢-$71.78

sport-intelligenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,105

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$155

Record

38%

115-190 (305)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$2,656.64

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$25.85

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

Both legs:

No$1,986.9669.1¢+$39.2

Yes$669.6832.7¢-$65.05

RN1

Invested

$2,189.6

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$15.64

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$918.61

Value

$843.66

PnL

-$74.95

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

oieshfn345

Invested

$718.39

Value

$751.52

PnL

+$33.14

Record

57%

2111-1562 (3673)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$713.96

Value

$715.81

PnL

+$1.84

Record

52%

14650-13314 (27964)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$727.66

Value

$694.79

PnL

-$32.87

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

MadridTime

Invested

$604.03

Value

$596.89

PnL

-$7.13

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

fraj0la

Invested

$508.5

Value

$522.73

PnL

+$26.52

Record

63%

255-149 (404)

sentrioCTR

Yes

Invested

$491.76

Value

$461.95

PnL

-$29.8

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

hi774cCTR

Yes

Invested

$475.73

Value

$446.9

PnL

-$36.04

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$933.27

Value

$352.51

PnL

-$36.47

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

38791873984189

Invested

$209.37

Value

$211.17

PnL

+$1.8

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$212.45

Value

$195.25

PnL

-$17.2

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$186

Value

$186

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

2058-1996 (4054)

ghorrockARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$132.14

Value

$106.77

PnL

-$6.38

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Both legs:

Yes$63.6732.3¢-$7.01

No$48.0269.6¢+$0.63

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 27 top traders (44%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

26% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 74% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.