Cagliari Calcio vs. Frosinone Calcio: Both Teams to Score

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 84¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 7

Yes17¢No83¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

-$498.7

Smart Money Entry

34.9¢ → 83.5¢

+139% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares7,565

Combined PnL+$420.54

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,190

Combined PnL-$919.23

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$3.5K	$2.7K	-$809.68	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67¢	$3.1K	$1.8K	$-1.2K
└ No leg	Noavg 32.9¢	$489.45	$886.16	+$396.71
LI Limousin	Noavg 34.1¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$137.69	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 68.7¢	$1.1K	$636.85	-$442.8	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 40.8¢	$417.04	$618.37	+$201.33	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
VE Venusian	Noavg 33¢	$374.8	$420.45	+$45.65	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 59.2¢	$610.6	$366.16	-$244.44	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 33.7¢	$94.52	$103.84	+$9.32	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
PA Pan9XCTR	Yesavg 61.2¢	$157.8	$78.66	-$79.14	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 32¢	$75.6	$75.6	-$0.02	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 67.6¢	$221.74	$68.89	-$152.85	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
RN1<$100	Noavg 42.8¢	$53.58	$68.23	+$14.66	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 32.6¢	$9.78	$17.85	+$8.06	55% 1426-1175 (2601)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 30.8¢	$6.51	$10.36	+$3.85	58% 21689-15792 (37481)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,540.43

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$809.68

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Both legs:

Yes$3,050.9867¢$-1.2K

No$489.4532.9¢+$396.71

Limousin

Invested

$1,610.19

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$137.69

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

0xheavy888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,079.65

Value

$636.85

PnL

-$442.8

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

MadridTime

Invested

$417.04

Value

$618.37

PnL

+$201.33

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

Venusian

Invested

$374.8

Value

$420.45

PnL

+$45.65

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$610.6

Value

$366.16

PnL

-$244.44

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

LightParadox

Invested

$94.52

Value

$103.84

PnL

+$9.32

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

Pan9XCTR

Yes

Invested

$157.8

Value

$78.66

PnL

-$79.14

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$75.6

Value

$75.6

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$221.74

Value

$68.89

PnL

-$152.85

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

RN1<$100

Invested

$53.58

Value

$68.23

PnL

+$14.66

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$9.78

Value

$17.85

PnL

+$8.06

Record

55%

1426-1175 (2601)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.51

Value

$10.36

PnL

+$3.85

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.