Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 61¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
$2.9K
$9.16
60.6¢ → 60.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 61¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$12.25 | 50% 26428-26255 (52683) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 39¢ | $709.02 | $718.11 | +$9.09 | 51% 17613-16616 (34229) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Underavg 39¢ | $235.15 | $241.18 | +$3.01 | 72% 6934-2740 (9674) |
CA Cannae | Overavg 59¢ | $219.36 | $223.07 | +$5.58 | 53% 16258-14439 (30697) |
DV dv-pm | Overavg 59¢ | $118 | $121 | +$3 | 49% 3236-3320 (6556) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $58.5 | $73.33 | +$0.58 | 47% 13002-14566 (27568) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $19.69 | $19.85 | +$0.16 | 57% 17248-12904 (30152) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $2 | $2 | -$0.03 | 52% 7639-6913 (14552) |
Invested
$1,506
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$12.25
Record
50%
26428-26255 (52683)
Invested
$709.02
Value
$718.11
PnL
+$9.09
Record
51%
17613-16616 (34229)
Invested
$235.15
Value
$241.18
PnL
+$3.01
Record
72%
6934-2740 (9674)
Invested
$219.36
Value
$223.07
PnL
+$5.58
Record
53%
16258-14439 (30697)
Invested
$118
Value
$121
PnL
+$3
Record
49%
3236-3320 (6556)
Invested
$58.5
Value
$73.33
PnL
+$0.58
Record
47%
13002-14566 (27568)
Invested
$19.69
Value
$19.85
PnL
+$0.16
Record
57%
17248-12904 (30152)
Invested
$2
Value
$2
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
7639-6913 (14552)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.