Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Both Teams to Score
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 57¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$6.6K
-$40.04
54.5¢ → 57.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99CTR | Noavg 45.5¢ | $3.1K | $2.9K | -$205.66 | 46% 7288-8597 (15885) |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 54.6¢ | $2.6K | $2.8K | +$137.85 | 51% 17621-16621 (34242) |
CA Cannae | Yesavg 54.1¢ | $784.32 | $833.8 | +$27.75 | 53% 16265-14441 (30706) |
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $74.99 | $75.65 | +$0.66 | 72% 6936-2743 (9679) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54¢ | $39.37 | $42.29 | +$1.46 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 43¢ | $34.16 | $33.36 | -$0.79 | |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 57.7¢ | $42.85 | $42.73 | -$0.12 | 45% 12937-15707 (28644) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $12.32 | $12.46 | +$0.15 | 58% 43617-31727 (75344) |
nigiri99CTRInvested
$3,102.04
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$205.66
Record
46%
7288-8597 (15885)
Invested
$2,633.54
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$137.85
Record
51%
17621-16621 (34242)
Invested
$784.32
Value
$833.8
PnL
+$27.75
Record
53%
16265-14441 (30706)
Invested
$74.99
Value
$75.65
PnL
+$0.66
Record
72%
6936-2743 (9679)
Both legs:
Invested
$42.85
Value
$42.73
PnL
-$0.12
Record
45%
12937-15707 (28644)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$12.32
Value
$12.46
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
43617-31727 (75344)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.