Will St Mirren FC win on 2026-09-05?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.9K
$46.26
85.5¢ → 88¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 89¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$1.74 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 86.7¢ | $373.92 | $379.16 | +$5.24 | 53% 16515-14663 (31178) |
LA LaarsY | Noavg 74.5¢ | $275.89 | $325.89 | +$50 | 51% 3519-3428 (6947) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $119.04 | $109.88 | -$9.16 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
PV pvc975<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.54 | $4.88 | -$0.66 | 98% 14684-327 (15011) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $1.5 | $0.6 | -$0.9 | 56% 8920-7126 (16046) |
RN1Invested
$1,038.13
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$1.74
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
Invested
$373.92
Value
$379.16
PnL
+$5.24
Record
53%
16515-14663 (31178)
Invested
$275.89
Value
$325.89
PnL
+$50
Record
51%
3519-3428 (6947)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$119.04
Value
$109.88
PnL
-$9.16
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
Invested
$5.54
Value
$4.88
PnL
-$0.66
Record
98%
14684-327 (15011)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$0.9
Record
56%
8920-7126 (16046)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.