Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will St Johnstone FC win on 2026-11-07?
Resolved Yes. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
No 53%
1 arb excluded
$4.1K
$48.84
Smart Money Signal
10 of 19 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 65.5¢ | $2.7K | $1.4K | $-1.3K | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.5¢ | $1.8K | — | $-1.8K | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 66¢ | $891.38 | $1.4K | +$460 | |
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Noavg 63.2¢ | $823.59 | — | -$823.59 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 30.5¢ | $502.31 | $1.6K | +$1.1K | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
VE VenusianCTR | Noavg 45.7¢ | $393.12 | — | -$393.12 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
PA Pan9XCTR | Noavg 23¢ | $103.67 | — | -$97.77 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
LI Limousin | Yesavg 70¢ | $303.11 | $428.98 | +$125.87 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
LR lryyyCTR | Noavg 58.5¢ | $119.3 | — | -$119.3 | 47% 9585-10702 (20287) |
NM NM-P | Yesavg 38¢ | $111.73 | $294.04 | +$172.01 | 64% 10182-5720 (15902) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.3¢ | $60.68 | — | -$60.68 | 50% 59994-58808 (118802) |
PA pauleta23 | Yesavg 36.6¢ | $95.14 | $260.14 | +$165 | 65% 24597-12971 (37568) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $44.74 | — | -$44.74 | 46% 1795-2102 (3897) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 66.2¢ | $45.65 | $34.53 | -$11.11 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100 | Noavg 52.7¢ | $23.7 | — | -$23.7 | 64% 5377-2997 (8374) |
 dips.<$100 | Yesavg 94.7¢ | $38.5 | $29.48 | -$9.02 | 47% 11040-12658 (23698) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Yesavg 55.9¢ | $33.3 | $59.56 | +$26.26 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $6.8 | — | -$6.8 | 51% 6523-6284 (12807) |
US User7429<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $99.18 | $28.94 | +$11.24 | 56% 9429-7491 (16920) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $6.2 | — | -$6.35 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
VA Vampiro1CTR<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $20 | — | +$3.07 | 77% 3951-1186 (5137) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $4.1 | $0 | -$0.6 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
Invested
$2,695.78
Value
$1.4K
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Both legs:
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$823.59
Value
—
PnL
-$823.59
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
Invested
$502.31
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
Invested
$393.12
Value
—
PnL
-$393.12
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$103.67
Value
—
PnL
-$97.77
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$303.11
Value
$428.98
PnL
+$125.87
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$119.3
Value
—
PnL
-$119.3
Record
47%
9585-10702 (20287)
Invested
$111.73
Value
$294.04
PnL
+$172.01
Record
64%
10182-5720 (15902)
Invested
$60.68
Value
—
PnL
-$60.68
Record
50%
59994-58808 (118802)
Invested
$95.14
Value
$260.14
PnL
+$165
Record
65%
24597-12971 (37568)
Invested
$44.74
Value
—
PnL
-$44.74
Record
46%
1795-2102 (3897)
Invested
$45.65
Value
$34.53
PnL
-$11.11
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$23.7
Value
—
PnL
-$23.7
Record
64%
5377-2997 (8374)
dips.<$100Invested
$38.5
Value
$29.48
PnL
-$9.02
Record
47%
11040-12658 (23698)
Invested
$33.3
Value
$59.56
PnL
+$26.26
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$6.8
Value
—
PnL
-$6.8
Record
51%
6523-6284 (12807)
Invested
$99.18
Value
$28.94
PnL
+$11.24
Record
56%
9429-7491 (16920)
Invested
$6.2
Value
—
PnL
-$6.35
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$20
Value
—
PnL
+$3.07
Record
77%
3951-1186 (5137)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$4.1
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.6
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)