Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Dundee FC win on 2026-11-07?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 37¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$19.4

Smart Money Entry

35.7¢ → 36.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,546

Combined PnL+$29.48

No3 traders

Total Value$576.65

Total Shares898

Combined PnL-$10.08

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-26 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 36.1¢	$604.81	$610	+$5.88	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
LI Limousin	Noavg 65.2¢	$560.43	$550.52	-$9.91	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 35.5¢	$373.99	$384.46	+$10.47	50% 28918-28732 (57650)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$366.99	$375.92	+$8.93	64% 10181-5719 (15900)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35¢	$263.33	$274.61	+$11.29
└ No leg	Noavg 65¢	$103.66	$101.31	-$2.35
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 34.9¢	$345.73	$358.41	+$12.68	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$326.72	$353.24	+$12.17	64% 10178-5767 (15945)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35¢	$256.35	$267.33	+$10.99
└ No leg	Noavg 65.5¢	$88.65	$85.9	+$1.18
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 64¢	$21.82	$21.69	-$0.13	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$7	$7.3	+$0.3	54% 10448-8768 (19216)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 64¢	$4.48	$4.45	-$0.04	51% 6512-6276 (12788)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$3.5	$3.65	+$0.15	58% 47486-34282 (81768)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$604.81

Value

$610

PnL

+$5.88

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

Limousin

Invested

$560.43

Value

$550.52

PnL

-$9.91

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$373.99

Value

$384.46

PnL

+$10.47

Record

50%

28918-28732 (57650)

NM-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$366.99

Value

$375.92

PnL

+$8.93

Record

64%

10181-5719 (15900)

Both legs:

Invested

$345.73

Value

$358.41

PnL

+$12.68

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

GC-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$326.72

Value

$353.24

PnL

+$12.17

Record

64%

10178-5767 (15945)

Both legs:

Yes$256.3535¢+$10.99

No$88.6565.5¢+$1.18

sentrio<$100

Invested

$21.82

Value

$21.69

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$7.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

10448-8768 (19216)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$4.48

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

6512-6276 (12788)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

47486-34282 (81768)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-26 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.