Falkirk FC vs. Celtic FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 100¢ · $666 held · ended Nov 1

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$666.44

Combined PnL

$111.6

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 100¢

+27% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$666.28

Total Shares667

Combined PnL+$143.49

Over2 traders

Total Value$0.17

Total Shares166

Combined PnL-$31.89

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 78.1¢	$488.84	$625.27	+$136.74	72% 2539-970 (3509)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 87¢	$27.88	$32.02	+$4.15	59% 30673-21383 (52056)
RN1<$100	Underavg 71¢	$6.39	$8.99	+$2.61	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$24.51	$0.13	-$24.38	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 20.4¢	$7.55	$0.04	-$7.51	48% 8942-9563 (18505)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$488.84

Value

$625.27

PnL

+$136.74

Record

72%

2539-970 (3509)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$27.88

Value

$32.02

PnL

+$4.15

Record

59%

30673-21383 (52056)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$6.39

Value

$8.99

PnL

+$2.61

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.51

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$24.38

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.55

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.51

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.