Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Falkirk FC win on 2026-09-05?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 41¢ · $1K held · ended Sep 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.2K
$1.9K
41.5¢ → 41¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Noavg 38.6¢ | $823.54 | $617.87 | +$1.3K | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Noavg 50¢ | $475.12 | $224.52 | +$565.63 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 53.4¢ | $181.83 | $194.43 | +$19.02 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $80.8 | $84.95 | +$4.14 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Yesavg 54.1¢ | $48.7 | $53.1 | +$4.4 | 61% 14484-9384 (23868) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.9¢ | $27.72 | $23.22 | +$0.9 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
RN1CTRInvested
$823.54
Value
$617.87
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$475.12
Value
$224.52
PnL
+$565.63
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$181.83
Value
$194.43
PnL
+$19.02
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$80.8
Value
$84.95
PnL
+$4.14
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$48.7
Value
$53.1
PnL
+$4.4
Record
61%
14484-9384 (23868)
Invested
$27.72
Value
$23.22
PnL
+$0.9
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.