Will Kilmarnock FC win on 2026-11-08?
9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 96¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 75%
$5.0K
$51.2
93.7¢ → 95.5¢
+2% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Noavg 93.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$15.68 | 64% 10184-5783 (15967) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 94.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$13.96 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 93.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$11.9 | 64% 10183-5729 (15912) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 93.5¢ | $534.75 | $540.48 | +$5.74 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 94.1¢ | $301.4 | $299.48 | -$1.92 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $178.88 | $180.7 | +$1.83 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 95.2¢ | $106.07 | $106.11 | +$0.04 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $19 | $19.1 | +$0.1 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $19 | $17.6 | -$1.4 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $6.25 | $11.93 | +$5.69 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $2.69 | $2.42 | -$0.27 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $0.6 | $0.45 | -$0.15 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
Invested
$1,374.81
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$15.68
Record
64%
10184-5783 (15967)
Invested
$1,260.7
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.96
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$1,139.7
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$11.9
Record
64%
10183-5729 (15912)
Invested
$534.75
Value
$540.48
PnL
+$5.74
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
Invested
$301.4
Value
$299.48
PnL
-$1.92
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
Invested
$178.88
Value
$180.7
PnL
+$1.83
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$106.07
Value
$106.11
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$19
Value
$19.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$19
Value
$17.6
PnL
-$1.4
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$6.25
Value
$11.93
PnL
+$5.69
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$2.69
Value
$2.42
PnL
-$0.27
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$0.15
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.