Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by October 31, 2026?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 2.3¢ · $83 held · ends Nov 1

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$83

Combined PnL

-$107.04

Smart Money Entry

11.2¢ → 2.3¢

-79% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$49.05

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$6.41

Yes4 traders

Total Value$34.14

Total Shares1,208

Combined PnL-$113.44

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 85¢	$36.58	$42.34	+$5.77	42% 5200-7124 (12324)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$54.01	$15.74	-$38.26	57% 13319-10177 (23496)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.4¢	$47.54	$10.42	-$32.71	36% 15021-27071 (42092)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 89¢	$6.07	$6.71	+$0.64	77% 11143-3403 (14546)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$48.57	$6.48	-$42.1	36% 2032-3630 (5662)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.88	$1.5	-$0.38	18% 3784-17100 (20884)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$36.58

Value

$42.34

PnL

+$5.77

Record

42%

5200-7124 (12324)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.01

Value

$15.74

PnL

-$38.26

Record

57%

13319-10177 (23496)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.54

Value

$10.42

PnL

-$32.71

Record

36%

15021-27071 (42092)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$6.07

Value

$6.71

PnL

+$0.64

Record

77%

11143-3403 (14546)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.57

Value

$6.48

PnL

-$42.1

Record

36%

2032-3630 (5662)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.88

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.38

Record

18%

3784-17100 (20884)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.3%

2.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2930.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

3030.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.