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5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$236.76

Smart Money Entry

85.4¢ → 96.2¢

+13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,656

Combined PnL+$211.57

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.54

Total Shares142

Combined PnL+$25.19

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

4939h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 88.1¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$75.54	77% 1490-445 (1935)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 72.3¢	$389.95	$519.24	+$129.29	73% 3016-1100 (4116)
0X 0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251	Noavg 97¢	$100.12	$111.72	+$1.03	90% 602-69 (671)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$80.91	$77.7	+$2.89	77% 12720-3885 (16605)
TT tttt123<$100	Noavg 83.5¢	$21.05	$23.87	+$2.82	72% 1665-632 (2297)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.6¢	$40.59	$4.23	+$36.96	34% 19370-36924 (56294)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.5¢	$30.79	$0.31	-$11.77	51% 2595-2532 (5127)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$1,763.22

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$75.54

Record

77%

1490-445 (1935)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$389.95

Value

$519.24

PnL

+$129.29

Record

73%

3016-1100 (4116)

0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251

Invested

$100.12

Value

$111.72

PnL

+$1.03

Record

90%

602-69 (671)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$80.91

Value

$77.7

PnL

+$2.89

Record

77%

12720-3885 (16605)

tttt123<$100

Invested

$21.05

Value

$23.87

PnL

+$2.82

Record

72%

1665-632 (2297)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.59

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$36.96

Record

34%

19370-36924 (56294)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.79

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$11.77

Record

51%

2595-2532 (5127)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

4939h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.