Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 23¢ · $438 held · ends Nov 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$437.85
-$47.22
26.4¢ → 22.5¢
-15% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 67.4¢ | $157.39 | $177.69 | +$20.3 | 41% 3102-4461 (7563) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67.4¢ | $117.15 | $134.77 | +$17.62 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 21.1¢ | $40.24 | $42.92 | +$2.68 | |
 CarCTR | Yesavg 25¢ | $125 | $112.5 | -$12.5 | 69% 1400-641 (2041) |
 HoshinoAICTR | Yesavg 28.6¢ | $171.3 | $82.85 | -$24.48 | 48% 10-11 (21) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $59.28 | $51.3 | -$7.98 | — 1-18 (19) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $10.26 | $8.55 | -$1.71 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $5.5 | $4.95 | -$0.55 | 23% 511-1693 (2204) |
Invested
$157.39
Value
$177.69
PnL
+$20.3
Record
41%
3102-4461 (7563)
Both legs:
CarCTRInvested
$125
Value
$112.5
PnL
-$12.5
Record
69%
1400-641 (2041)
HoshinoAICTRInvested
$171.3
Value
$82.85
PnL
-$24.48
Record
48%
10-11 (21)
Invested
$59.28
Value
$51.3
PnL
-$7.98
Record
—
1-18 (19)
Invested
$10.26
Value
$8.55
PnL
-$1.71
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.55
Record
23%
511-1693 (2204)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.