Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by November 15, 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 93¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$1.4K
-$26.68
90.5¢ → 92.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arjennnnn | Noavg 92¢ | $781.14 | $781.14 | -$0 | 69% 522-238 (760) |
 Parz1vaI | Noavg 92¢ | $368 | $368 | +$0 | 73% 1108-420 (1528) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $96.96 | $96 | -$0.96 | 5% 1-20 (21) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 74.8¢ | $83.66 | $80.7 | -$2.96 | 41% 3108-4463 (7571) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $74.46 | $73 | -$1.46 | 13% 3-21 (24) |
 HoshinoAICTR | Yesavg 14.9¢ | $179.66 | $19.56 | -$21.31 | 45% 10-12 (22) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $0.5 | $0.5 | +$0 | 54% 539-462 (1001) |
arjennnnnInvested
$781.14
Value
$781.14
PnL
-$0
Record
69%
522-238 (760)
Parz1vaIInvested
$368
Value
$368
PnL
+$0
Record
73%
1108-420 (1528)
Invested
$96.96
Value
$96
PnL
-$0.96
Record
5%
1-20 (21)
Invested
$83.66
Value
$80.7
PnL
-$2.96
Record
41%
3108-4463 (7571)
Invested
$74.46
Value
$73
PnL
-$1.46
Record
13%
3-21 (24)
HoshinoAICTRInvested
$179.66
Value
$19.56
PnL
-$21.31
Record
45%
10-12 (22)
Invested
$0.5
Value
$0.5
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
539-462 (1001)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.