Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 66¢ · $11K held · ends Dec 31

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

-$87.27

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 65.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,593

Combined PnL-$68.21

Yes4 traders

Total Value$509.65

Total Shares1,470

Combined PnL-$19.06

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Parz1vaIARB<$100	Noavg 61.9¢	$7.1K	$7.5K	+$450.4	73% 1113-422 (1535)
└ No leg	Noavg 61.9¢	$5.6K	$6.0K	+$366
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$84.4
SP SPLPB	Noavg 67¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$22.91	23% 511-1698 (2209)
HoshinoAI	Noavg 65.3¢	$1.1K	$804.96	-$44.07	43% 12-16 (28)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$350	$345	-$5	66% 4109-2134 (6243)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 37.1¢	$207.22	$205.57	-$1.65	41% 3115-4481 (7596)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.1¢	$133.8	$126.14	-$7.66
└ No leg	Noavg 61¢	$73.42	$79.43	+$6.01
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$93.65	$88.48	-$5.06	53% 40-36 (76)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 67¢	$81.87	$80.65	-$1.22	4% 1-27 (28)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$78	$70	-$8	47% 1611-1838 (3449)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.2¢	$10.6	$6.17	-$1.01	54% 553-469 (1022)

Parz1vaIARB<$100

Invested

$7,056.73

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$450.4

Record

73%

1113-422 (1535)

Both legs:

No$5,597.6161.9¢+$366

Yes$1,459.1233.1¢+$84.4

SPLPB

Invested

$1,563.11

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$22.91

Record

23%

511-1698 (2209)

HoshinoAI

Invested

$1,119.32

Value

$804.96

PnL

-$44.07

Record

43%

12-16 (28)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$350

Value

$345

PnL

-$5

Record

66%

4109-2134 (6243)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$207.22

Value

$205.57

PnL

-$1.65

Record

41%

3115-4481 (7596)

Both legs:

Invested

$93.65

Value

$88.48

PnL

-$5.06

Record

53%

40-36 (76)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$81.87

Value

$80.65

PnL

-$1.22

Record

1-27 (28)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78

Value

$70

PnL

-$8

Record

47%

1611-1838 (3449)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.6

Value

$6.17

PnL

-$1.01

Record

54%

553-469 (1022)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.5%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.