Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 49¢ · $1K held · ends Jun 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$19.08
46.5¢ → 48.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 50.3¢ | $1.5K | $755.67 | +$4.36 | 36% 14598-26253 (40851) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50.3¢ | $400.5 | $382.19 | -$20.59 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49.3¢ | $353.98 | $373.48 | +$24.95 | |
 StupidMonkeyyyCTR | Noavg 46.1¢ | $333.7 | $347.71 | +$14.01 | 50% 142-142 (284) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR | Noavg 46¢ | $124.41 | $129.82 | +$5.41 | 36% 2021-3617 (5638) |
 GenaTheBondKilIer | Yesavg 50.9¢ | $103 | $100 | -$3 | 51% 513-502 (1015) |
 GluckykluckyCTR<$100 | Noavg 49.3¢ | $72.8 | $75.46 | +$2.66 | 82% 443-100 (543) |
Invested
$1,512.73
Value
$755.67
PnL
+$4.36
Record
36%
14598-26253 (40851)
Both legs:
StupidMonkeyyyCTRInvested
$333.7
Value
$347.71
PnL
+$14.01
Record
50%
142-142 (284)
Invested
$124.41
Value
$129.82
PnL
+$5.41
Record
36%
2021-3617 (5638)
GenaTheBondKilIerInvested
$103
Value
$100
PnL
-$3
Record
51%
513-502 (1015)
GluckykluckyCTR<$100Invested
$72.8
Value
$75.46
PnL
+$2.66
Record
82%
443-100 (543)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.