Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 42¢ · $204 held · ends Aug 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$203.72
$1.2
Research grade
NeutralNo at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 55.2¢ | $99.3 | $105.56 | +$6.26 | 40% 2998-4409 (7407) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 55.2¢ | $59.08 | $63.15 | +$4.07 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40.8¢ | $40.23 | $42.41 | +$2.19 | |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $58.63 | $56.07 | -$2.56 | 23% 80-263 (343) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $29.53 | $30.97 | +$1.44 | 52% 5277-4791 (10068) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $46.8 | $8.6 | +$2.8 | — 6-8 (14) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.2¢ | $18 | $2.52 | -$0.48 | 50% 4477-4426 (8903) |
Invested
$99.3
Value
$105.56
PnL
+$6.26
Record
40%
2998-4409 (7407)
Both legs:
Invested
$58.63
Value
$56.07
PnL
-$2.56
Record
23%
80-263 (343)
Invested
$29.53
Value
$30.97
PnL
+$1.44
Record
52%
5277-4791 (10068)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$46.8
Value
$8.6
PnL
+$2.8
Record
—
6-8 (14)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$18
Value
$2.52
PnL
-$0.48
Record
50%
4477-4426 (8903)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.