Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 60¢ · $387 held · ends Sep 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$386.55
$0.23
60¢ → 60¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tenebrus7 | Yesavg 61¢ | $122 | $120 | -$2 | 0% 0-41 (41) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $81.85 | $79.21 | -$2.64 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $75.4 | $78 | +$2.6 | 23% 80-263 (343) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $58.76 | $56.86 | -$1.9 | — 3-6 (9) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $39.62 | $43.22 | +$3.6 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 56.3¢ | $8.7 | $9.26 | +$0.57 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Tenebrus7Invested
$122
Value
$120
PnL
-$2
Record
0%
0-41 (41)
Invested
$81.85
Value
$79.21
PnL
-$2.64
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
Invested
$75.4
Value
$78
PnL
+$2.6
Record
23%
80-263 (343)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$58.76
Value
$56.86
PnL
-$1.9
Record
—
3-6 (9)
Invested
$39.62
Value
$43.22
PnL
+$3.6
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$8.7
Value
$9.26
PnL
+$0.57
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.