Rubio's Republican nomination odds dip to 12% by December 31?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 59¢ · $115 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$114.97
$1.55
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HoshinoAI<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $72.8 | $59.4 | -$2.14 | — 10-8 (18) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $22.22 | $23.54 | +$1.32 | — 1-9 (10) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.9¢ | $16.5 | $20.55 | +$4.05 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $13.16 | $11.48 | -$1.68 | — 0-10 (10) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.