Universitatea Craiova CS vs. FC Botoşani: O/U 3.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 93¢ · $722 held · ended Nov 1

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$722.28

Combined PnL

$26.62

Smart Money Entry

87.7¢ → 93¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$716.88

Total Shares752

Combined PnL+$25.45

Over1 trader

Total Value$5.4

Total Shares51

Combined PnL+$1.16

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 87.3¢	$567.87	$605.2	+$37.33	72% 2545-973 (3518)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 92.8¢	$121.46	$107.04	-$14.43	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 7.4¢	$4.23	$5.4	+$1.16	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 42¢	$2.1	$4.65	+$2.55	53% 5677-5082 (10759)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$567.87

Value

$605.2

PnL

+$37.33

Record

72%

2545-973 (3518)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$121.46

Value

$107.04

PnL

-$14.43

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.23

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$1.16

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.1

Value

$4.65

PnL

+$2.55

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.