Will FC UTA Arad vs. FC Petrolul Ploieşti end in a draw?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 76¢ · $456 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$456.15
$7.23
74.3¢ → 75.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 74.4¢ | $333.81 | $338.78 | +$6.73 | 51% 26264-24900 (51164) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $89.18 | $90.99 | +$1.21 | 53% 16906-15021 (31927) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.9¢ | $10.63 | $10.05 | -$0.59 | 49% 1529-1602 (3131) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $7.4 | $7.55 | +$0.1 | 58% 46985-33882 (80867) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.9¢ | $5.32 | $5.03 | +$0 | 51% 1626-1534 (3160) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.9¢ | $3.98 | $3.76 | -$0.22 | 50% 1588-1611 (3199) |
Invested
$333.81
Value
$338.78
PnL
+$6.73
Record
51%
26264-24900 (51164)
Invested
$89.18
Value
$90.99
PnL
+$1.21
Record
53%
16906-15021 (31927)
Invested
$10.63
Value
$10.05
PnL
-$0.59
Record
49%
1529-1602 (3131)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$7.4
Value
$7.55
PnL
+$0.1
Record
58%
46985-33882 (80867)
Invested
$5.32
Value
$5.03
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1626-1534 (3160)
Invested
$3.98
Value
$3.76
PnL
-$0.22
Record
50%
1588-1611 (3199)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.