Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2026-11-08?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 41¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8

Yes60¢No40¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$131.75

Smart Money Entry

33.4¢ → 40.5¢

+21% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,926

Combined PnL+$123.59

Yes3 traders

Total Value$119.05

Total Shares187

Combined PnL+$8.16

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 34¢	$393.26	$443.76	+$50.5	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 32.7¢	$260.99	$314.73	+$53.75	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
CI cigarettesCTR	Noavg 31¢	$508.14	$175.31	+$17.78	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 31.5¢	$400	$138	+$12	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 38.7¢	$82.08	$78.44	-$3.64	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$69	$77.92	+$8.92	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$46.73	$39.32	-$7.41	48% 150-163 (313)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$36.28	$35.39	-$0.89	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$5.6	$5.73	+$0.13	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$16.45	$5.68	+$0.58	52% 1527-1394 (2921)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$3.45	$3.45	+$0	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$0.64	$0.66	+$0.02	52% 6029-5557 (11586)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$393.26

Value

$443.76

PnL

+$50.5

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$260.99

Value

$314.73

PnL

+$53.75

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

cigarettesCTR

Invested

$508.14

Value

$175.31

PnL

+$17.78

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$400

Value

$138

PnL

+$12

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$82.08

Value

$78.44

PnL

-$3.64

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$69

Value

$77.92

PnL

+$8.92

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

biying99999CTR<$100

Invested

$46.73

Value

$39.32

PnL

-$7.41

Record

48%

150-163 (313)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.28

Value

$35.39

PnL

-$0.89

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.73

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$16.45

Value

$5.68

PnL

+$0.58

Record

52%

1527-1394 (2921)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.66

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.