Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
FC CFR 1907 Cluj vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: O/U 1.5
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 44¢ · $418 held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 33%
$417.96
$19.72
78.5¢ → 44¢
-44% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 79.3¢ | $149.95 | $116.96 | -$2 | 59% 52299-37045 (89344) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 29.6¢ | $43.59 | $82.58 | +$38.99 | 48% 2079-2257 (4336) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 78¢ | $95.2 | $73.78 | -$0.48 | 50% 32540-32687 (65227) |
LI Limousin | Underavg 22¢ | $266.55 | $58.64 | +$0 | 49% 2102-2190 (4292) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 77.4¢ | $60.73 | $34.54 | -$26.19 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $99.16 | $21.82 | +$2.97 | 51% 27916-27361 (55277) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Underavg 23.9¢ | $10.57 | $15.72 | +$5.15 | 48% 2032-2230 (4262) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $5.25 | $7.53 | +$2.29 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $7.41 | $6.39 | -$1.02 | 50% 23433-23429 (46862) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$149.95
Value
$116.96
PnL
-$2
Record
59%
52299-37045 (89344)
Invested
$43.59
Value
$82.58
PnL
+$38.99
Record
48%
2079-2257 (4336)
Invested
$95.2
Value
$73.78
PnL
-$0.48
Record
50%
32540-32687 (65227)
Invested
$266.55
Value
$58.64
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
2102-2190 (4292)
Invested
$60.73
Value
$34.54
PnL
-$26.19
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$99.16
Value
$21.82
PnL
+$2.97
Record
51%
27916-27361 (55277)
Invested
$10.57
Value
$15.72
PnL
+$5.15
Record
48%
2032-2230 (4262)
RN1<$100Invested
$5.25
Value
$7.53
PnL
+$2.29
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$7.41
Value
$6.39
PnL
-$1.02
Record
50%
23433-23429 (46862)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.