Will FC CFR 1907 Cluj win on 2026-11-08?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 85¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$2.6K
$63.25
87.4¢ → 85¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Noavg 87.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$50.77 | 48% 2079-2257 (4336) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 87¢ | $508.14 | $439.54 | -$2.54 | 50% 65438-65762 (131200) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 86.9¢ | $310.62 | $323.56 | +$12.94 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $170.2 | $163.52 | -$6.68 | 50% 32540-32687 (65227) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 87¢ | $144.08 | $124.63 | -$0.72 | 48% 2039-2213 (4252) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 88.9¢ | $99.09 | $100.74 | +$1.65 | 48% 2032-2230 (4262) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $29.71 | $37.13 | +$7.43 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $80.14 | $10.82 | +$0.4 | 46% 30563-35669 (66232) |
Invested
$1,301.07
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$50.77
Record
48%
2079-2257 (4336)
Invested
$508.14
Value
$439.54
PnL
-$2.54
Record
50%
65438-65762 (131200)
Invested
$310.62
Value
$323.56
PnL
+$12.94
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$170.2
Value
$163.52
PnL
-$6.68
Record
50%
32540-32687 (65227)
Invested
$144.08
Value
$124.63
PnL
-$0.72
Record
48%
2039-2213 (4252)
Invested
$99.09
Value
$100.74
PnL
+$1.65
Record
48%
2032-2230 (4262)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$29.71
Value
$37.13
PnL
+$7.43
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$80.14
Value
$10.82
PnL
+$0.4
Record
46%
30563-35669 (66232)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.