FC Botoşani vs. ASC Oțelul Galați: O/U 3.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 98¢ · $795 held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
$794.79
-$42.45
83.2¢ → 97.8¢
+18% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 71.3¢ | $300.43 | $363.33 | +$64.9 | — |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 93.5¢ | $247.2 | $211.66 | -$34.84 | — |
 RN1 | Underavg 97.3¢ | $185.26 | $185.54 | +$0.29 | — |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 71¢ | $21.81 | $29.89 | +$8.08 | — |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $83.55 | $3.59 | -$79.96 | — |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 2.8¢ | $0.7 | $0.71 | +$0.01 | — |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $0.98 | $0.06 | -$0.93 | — |
Invested
$300.43
Value
$363.33
PnL
+$64.9
Record
—
Invested
$247.2
Value
$211.66
PnL
-$34.84
Record
—
RN1Invested
$185.26
Value
$185.54
PnL
+$0.29
Record
—
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$21.81
Value
$29.89
PnL
+$8.08
Record
—
Invested
$83.55
Value
$3.59
PnL
-$79.96
Record
—
Invested
$0.7
Value
$0.71
PnL
+$0.01
Record
—
Invested
$0.98
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$0.93
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.