FC Botoşani vs. ASC Oțelul Galați: O/U 2.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 86¢ · $956 held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
$956.49
$136.2
58¢ → 85.5¢
+47% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 59.1¢ | $401.92 | $515.59 | +$113.67 | — |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 37¢ | $191.76 | $241.28 | +$49.52 | — |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 58.7¢ | $176.35 | $150.36 | -$25.99 | — |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $29.5 | $28.91 | -$0.59 | — |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $18.26 | $17.89 | -$0.37 | — |
LI Limousin<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.45 | -$0.05 | — |
Invested
$401.92
Value
$515.59
PnL
+$113.67
Record
—
RN1CTRInvested
$191.76
Value
$241.28
PnL
+$49.52
Record
—
Invested
$176.35
Value
$150.36
PnL
-$25.99
Record
—
Invested
$29.5
Value
$28.91
PnL
-$0.59
Record
—
Invested
$18.26
Value
$17.89
PnL
-$0.37
Record
—
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.45
PnL
-$0.05
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.