FC Botoşani vs. ASC Oțelul Galați: O/U 1.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 62¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$191.65
42.6¢ → 61.5¢
+44% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 51.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$159.31 | — |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51.6¢ | $1.0K | $758.25 | -$245.05 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48.2¢ | $323.62 | $409.36 | +$85.74 | |
 RN1 | Underavg 56.6¢ | $676.12 | $733.5 | +$57.38 | — |
MA MadridTime | Underavg 42.1¢ | $547.07 | $331.11 | -$215.95 | — |
LI Limousin | Underavg 27.2¢ | $258.8 | $242.36 | -$16.44 | — |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $30.73 | $35.84 | +$5.11 | — |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 39.8¢ | $41.54 | $26.59 | -$14.95 | — |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 32.7¢ | $30.98 | $24.12 | -$6.85 | — |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $0.57 | $0.63 | +$0.06 | — |
Invested
$1,326.92
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$159.31
Record
—
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$676.12
Value
$733.5
PnL
+$57.38
Record
—
Invested
$547.07
Value
$331.11
PnL
-$215.95
Record
—
Invested
$258.8
Value
$242.36
PnL
-$16.44
Record
—
Invested
$30.73
Value
$35.84
PnL
+$5.11
Record
—
Invested
$41.54
Value
$26.59
PnL
-$14.95
Record
—
Invested
$30.98
Value
$24.12
PnL
-$6.85
Record
—
Invested
$0.57
Value
$0.63
PnL
+$0.06
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.