Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (74%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Botoşani vs. ASC Oțelul Galați: O/U 0.5

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 26¢ · $65 held · ended Nov 9

Over74¢Under26¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

Total Value

$64.76

Combined PnL

-$31.43

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$64.76

Total Shares569

Combined PnL-$31.43

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 17.1¢	$17.83	$27.6	+$9.77	—
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 22.6¢	$60.78	$21.54	-$39.25	—
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 7.7¢	$7.58	$7.91	+$0.33	—
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 14.2¢	$6.4	$3.6	-$2.8	—
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$2.27	$2.59	+$0.32	—
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$1.33	$1.52	+$0.19	—

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.83

Value

$27.6

PnL

+$9.77

Record

—

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60.78

Value

$21.54

PnL

-$39.25

Record

—

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.58

Value

$7.91

PnL

+$0.33

Record

—

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.4

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$2.8

Record

—

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.27

Value

$2.59

PnL

+$0.32

Record

—

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.52

PnL

+$0.19

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.0%

26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$257.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

357.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.