FC Botoşani vs. ASC Oțelul Galați: Both Teams to Score
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 76¢ · $679 held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$679
$1.92
42.8¢ → 75.5¢
+76% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 42.6¢ | $287.4 | $289.81 | +$2.41 | — |
LO lonmi2511 | Noavg 43¢ | $171.53 | $171.53 | -$0 | — |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 42.5¢ | $201.96 | $139.75 | +$0.85 | — |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $38.24 | $38.24 | -$0 | — |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 43.5¢ | $22.03 | $21.78 | -$0.25 | — |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $14.19 | $14.19 | +$0 | — |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.15 | -$0.1 | — |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $2.57 | $1.58 | -$0.99 | — |
Invested
$287.4
Value
$289.81
PnL
+$2.41
Record
—
Invested
$171.53
Value
$171.53
PnL
-$0
Record
—
VeryLucky888Invested
$201.96
Value
$139.75
PnL
+$0.85
Record
—
Invested
$38.24
Value
$38.24
PnL
-$0
Record
—
Invested
$22.03
Value
$21.78
PnL
-$0.25
Record
—
Invested
$14.19
Value
$14.19
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.15
PnL
-$0.1
Record
—
RN1<$100Invested
$2.57
Value
$1.58
PnL
-$0.99
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.