Will ASC Oțelul Galați win on 2026-11-09?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 80¢ · $969 held · ended Nov 9

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$968.57

Combined PnL

$20.73

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 79.5¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$717.25

Total Shares834

Combined PnL-$2.2

Yes4 traders

Total Value$102.78

Total Shares337

Combined PnL+$22.94

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 74.3¢	$428.07	$428.02	-$0.05	—
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 77¢	$175.18	$177.46	+$2.28	—
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 22.7¢	$149.82	$148.54	-$1.28	—
└ No leg	Noavg 74.4¢	$72.64	$77.09	+$4.45
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.7¢	$77.18	$71.45	-$5.73
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$59.34	$75.52	+$16.18	—
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 75.4¢	$53.67	$49.45	-$4.21	—
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 71¢	$33.66	$35.93	+$2.27	—
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$15.96	$21.16	+$5.2	—
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 77¢	$20.26	$18.29	-$1.97	—
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 73.9¢	$8.61	$8.1	-$0.51	—
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$3.15	$4.58	+$1.43	—
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$1.4	$1.52	+$0.12	—

RN1

Invested

$428.07

Value

$428.02

PnL

-$0.05

Record

—

LuckyLoo

Invested

$175.18

Value

$177.46

PnL

+$2.28

Record

—

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$149.82

Value

$148.54

PnL

-$1.28

Record

—

Both legs:

No$72.6474.4¢+$4.45

Yes$77.1822.7¢-$5.73

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.34

Value

$75.52

PnL

+$16.18

Record

—

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$53.67

Value

$49.45

PnL

-$4.21

Record

—

Limousin<$100

Invested

$33.66

Value

$35.93

PnL

+$2.27

Record

—

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.96

Value

$21.16

PnL

+$5.2

Record

—

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$20.26

Value

$18.29

PnL

-$1.97

Record

—

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$8.61

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$0.51

Record

—

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.15

Value

$4.58

PnL

+$1.43

Record

—

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.52

PnL

+$0.12

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.