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5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$231.37
69.1¢ → 66.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $1.4K | $491.12 | -$241.88 | 24% 82-266 (348) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69¢ | $345 | $315 | -$30 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31.1¢ | $148.1 | $176.12 | -$211.88 | |
 scout | Noavg 68.8¢ | $2.6K | $440.16 | +$226.72 | — 2-0 (2) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 73.3¢ | $74.24 | $73.55 | -$0.69 | 41% 3158-4508 (7666) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $25.19 | $30.2 | +$5.01 | 13% 26-177 (203) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $12.46 | $13.07 | +$0.6 | 55% 48-39 (87) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $3.55 | $3.28 | -$0.27 | 84% 26-5 (31) |
Invested
$1,438.37
Value
$491.12
PnL
-$241.88
Record
24%
82-266 (348)
Both legs:
scoutInvested
$2,561.2
Value
$440.16
PnL
+$226.72
Record
—
2-0 (2)
Invested
$74.24
Value
$73.55
PnL
-$0.69
Record
41%
3158-4508 (7666)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$25.19
Value
$30.2
PnL
+$5.01
Record
13%
26-177 (203)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$12.46
Value
$13.07
PnL
+$0.6
Record
55%
48-39 (87)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$3.28
PnL
-$0.27
Record
84%
26-5 (31)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.