Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?
Resolved No. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
No 57%
$131.25
-$128.53
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $64.6 | $64.79 | -$32.2 | 61% 20632-13069 (33701) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $45.95 | $46 | -$9.16 | 52% 4913-4509 (9422) |
HO Hourglass<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $10.43 | $10.46 | -$8.5 | 77% 8836-2618 (11454) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $9.98 | $10 | -$23.97 | 48% 3413-3686 (7099) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.9¢ | $40 | — | -$5.16 | 43% 132-178 (310) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $52.08 | — | -$52.08 | 32% 4330-9314 (13644) |
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 98.6¢ | $522.61 | — | +$6.37 | 77% 1385-406 (1791) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $3.83 | — | -$3.83 | 35% 14791-26919 (41710) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$64.6
Value
$64.79
PnL
-$32.2
Record
61%
20632-13069 (33701)
Invested
$45.95
Value
$46
PnL
-$9.16
Record
52%
4913-4509 (9422)
Invested
$10.43
Value
$10.46
PnL
-$8.5
Record
77%
8836-2618 (11454)
Invested
$9.98
Value
$10
PnL
-$23.97
Record
48%
3413-3686 (7099)
Invested
$40
Value
—
PnL
-$5.16
Record
43%
132-178 (310)
Invested
$52.08
Value
—
PnL
-$52.08
Record
32%
4330-9314 (13644)
Invested
$522.61
Value
—
PnL
+$6.37
Record
77%
1385-406 (1791)
Invested
$3.83
Value
—
PnL
-$3.83
Record
35%
14791-26919 (41710)
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