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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?

Resolved No. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

9

No 56%

Total Value

$250.6

Combined PnL

-$35.87

Smart Money Signal

No

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$250.6

Total Shares251

Combined PnL-$27.68

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,914

Combined PnL-$8.18

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 99.5¢	$116.98	$117.57	+$0.59	77% 1385-406 (1791)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$63.53	$48.42	+$0.05	77% 8836-2618 (11454)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$45.95	$46	-$9.16	52% 4913-4509 (9422)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$35.53	$35.57	-$23.99	48% 3413-3686 (7099)
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100	Noavg 95¢	$95.36	$3.04	+$4.82	53% 1096-980 (2076)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	—	-$0	57% 13017-9926 (22943)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Yesavg 0.1¢	$699.34	—	-$1.02	43% 132-178 (310)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$4.96	—	-$4.96	32% 4330-9314 (13644)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$2.2	—	-$2.2	35% 14791-26919 (41710)

Invested

$116.98

Value

$117.57

PnL

+$0.59

Record

77%

1385-406 (1791)

Invested

$63.53

Value

$48.42

PnL

+$0.05

Record

77%

8836-2618 (11454)

Invested

$45.95

Value

$46

PnL

-$9.16

Record

52%

4913-4509 (9422)

Invested

$35.53

Value

$35.57

PnL

-$23.99

Record

48%

3413-3686 (7099)

SnapElectionAvoider<$100

Invested

$95.36

Value

$3.04

PnL

+$4.82

Record

53%

1096-980 (2076)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$0.02

Value

—

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

13017-9926 (22943)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Invested

$699.34

Value

—

PnL

-$1.02

Record

43%

132-178 (310)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

—

PnL

-$4.96

Record

32%

4330-9314 (13644)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

—

PnL

-$2.2

Record

35%

14791-26919 (41710)

Smart Money Signal

No

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf123166d...94efaf

Slug

reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decreases-interest-rates-by-50-bps-at-the-october-2026-meeting-20260729164521632

Traders in this Market

QMG-CORE

No — $117.57

Hourglass

No — $48.42

korda77

No — $46

alex20011

No — $35.57

SnapElectionAvoider

No — $3.04

ghorrock

Yes — $0

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Yes — $0

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes — $0

xtxpleasecallme

Yes — $0

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