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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?

Resolved No. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Yes 67%

Total Value

$60.46

Combined PnL

-$68.58

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$60.46

Total Shares60

Combined PnL-$26.88

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,442

Combined PnL-$41.69

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$49.8	$50	-$24.8	61% 20632-13069 (33701)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.45	$10.46	-$2.08	77% 8836-2618 (11454)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yes	—	—	-$23.98	48% 3413-3686 (7099)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.07	—	-$0.07	57% 13017-9926 (22943)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$204	—	-$1.02	43% 132-178 (310)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$5.26	—	-$5.26	32% 4330-9314 (13644)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yes	—	—	-$9.16	52% 4913-4509 (9422)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$2.2	—	-$2.2	35% 14791-26919 (41710)

Invested

$49.8

Value

$50

PnL

-$24.8

Record

61%

20632-13069 (33701)

Invested

$10.45

Value

$10.46

PnL

-$2.08

Record

77%

8836-2618 (11454)

alex20011CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$23.98

Record

48%

3413-3686 (7099)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$0.07

Value

—

PnL

-$0.07

Record

57%

13017-9926 (22943)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Invested

$204

Value

—

PnL

-$1.02

Record

43%

132-178 (310)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$5.26

Value

—

PnL

-$5.26

Record

32%

4330-9314 (13644)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$9.16

Record

52%

4913-4509 (9422)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

—

PnL

-$2.2

Record

35%

14791-26919 (41710)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x54ada15a...c75981

Slug

reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decreases-interest-rates-by-25-bps-at-the-october-2026-meeting-20260729164521633

Traders in this Market

balthazar

No — $50

Hourglass

No — $10.46

alex20011

Yes — $0

ghorrock

Yes — $0

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Yes — $0

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes — $0

korda77

Yes — $0

xtxpleasecallme

Yes — $0

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